Craps – Standard Deviation

This table is intended to indicate the standard deviation for various craps ‘strategies’. These indicate the standard deviation per (root) hour, assuming 120 rolls per hour. You can use this as a guide to tune your play to your current desired “action”. I usually start with something around $60 standard deviation when it is not my turn, and then ramp it up to ~$120 when I am rolling. If I am winning, ramp it up more, and throw in a few ‘crazy’ bets like a Hard 8 or a Horn High 12.

$5 Pass/come $10 Pass/come
Pass Line ONLY $29.81 $59.62
Place 8 $6 or $12 $33 $66
Pass Line and single odds* $58 $112
Place 8 for $6 or $12, press to $30 $67 $95
Pass line, $10 odds $85 $112
“Table Time Plus” $10 base bet $115 $115
Pass + 1 come, $10 odds $125 $160
Pass + 2 come, $10 odds $150 $195
Pass 10/20/25 odds+ 1 come w/ $10 odds $180 $214
Pass 10/20/25 odds+2 come w/ $10 odds $205 $245
Pass + 1 come, $10/20/25 odds $220 $250
Pass + 2 come, $10/20/25 odds $262 $307
Pass + 1 come, $20/40/50 odds NA $440

Any cases above with come bets were calculated via simulation, and I was too lazy to indicate error bars.

Consider also the “5 count” (google it) to reduce the standard deviation and ev. Note that this will reduce cost of playing to 43.5% of what it was, but reduce the standard deviation only to 66% of it original value ( i.e. by Sqrt(43.5%)). So you might be able to bet more less often and get better results.

Note: It is better in terms of house edge to increase odds bets before adding come bets, etc, but it just is not as much fun to me, so these are not OPTIMAL methods of achieving the indicated standard deviation. If you want to know the rate of loss, you can figure it out from this (based on $5 bets): if you have 0 come bets, the rate of loss per hour is about $2.50 per hour. With 1 come bet ~$4.50, and with (a max of) 2, its ~$5.50. Its not linear because the number of come bets active fluctuates. Obviously its twice this if you are at the $10 level.

“Table Time Plus” is as described in “No Nonsense Craps”. For $5 table, i used 1x odds for points of 4,5,9,10 and 3x odds on 6/8. Also 1x odds are bet in all cases even when only one number is up. Some variations from this don’t matter. For $10 table, only single odds and only on 6/8, and only after a come bet was established on a number.

Addendum: I need to add these to the table, but sometimes you find yourself faced with a $15 or even $25 table. I ran some sims and came up with the following ‘baselines’ from which to branch out:

  • $25 pass line, 0 odds on 4 or 10, $20 on 5 or 9, and $25 on 6 or 8. If the point is 4 or 10, then place the 8 for $30. This works great also with don’t pass (lay $30 odds). Standard deviation per root hour is $270
  • $15 pass line, $0/$20/$25 odds as above. If point is 6 or 8, do a come bet with same odds. Otherwise, place the 8 for $18 (unless the come bet is still up!) Standard deviation per root hour is $248
  • $10 pass line, $10/$20/$25 odds. If point is 6 or 8, do a come bet with same odds. Otherwise place the 8 for $12. Standard Deviation per root hour is $218

*note for a $5 table, single odds on 5/9 means $6 odds.